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Despite the loosening of Infection remain low – these are the reasons

When the big Outdoor Meeting on the day of Pentecost to the mass of Sars-CoV stick-2 infections lead, to keep the optimists are right: far-reaching relaxations are possible, the risk of contagion is low, a second wave is currently in Germany unlikely. But: distance, hand hygiene and masks must remain – and large-scale events is prohibited.

The beach party on the island of Sylt, boat-Rave in Berlin, full mountains in the Allgäu – on the day of Pentecost, it looked in many places, as always, on a holiday in the beautiful summer weather: All of them were out there, all of them had sat in the fun, all the were, were close. To the Coronavirus someone thought hardly.

Federal Minister of health, Jens Spahn expressed concern about the pictures from the weekend: “celebrating the Virus spreads extremely easy.” Although the Infection rates in Germany are currently at a low level. “Nevertheless, we are still in the midst of the pandemic.”

Pentecost brings the low Sars-CoV-2 infection numbers in danger?

Now all banned, look at the next few days, if the mass defiance of the still existing corona rules on the infection to happen, the impact, whether a new uncontrollable Covid-19-looming outbreak.

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Before Pentecost, everything looked pretty good, so good that even the ever-threatening and cautious virologist Christian Drosten in his NDR Podcast, and in a “mirror”of the Interview optimistically expressed: “Maybe we can avoid a second Shutdown.” He saw the “theoretical possibility” that the Germans “to come through without second wave”.

In spite of the loosening in everyday life, the infection numbers have not risen in life so far, again, as had been feared. 300 to 500 a day proven new infections nationwide are negligible almost. For comparison: In a few days at the beginning of April, around 6000 Neuinfizierte were still a daily basis.

Local Covid-19 outbreaks due to rule-violation

Although there have been in the past few weeks local Covid-19-outbreaks. They show that Sars-Cov-2 has not become harmless. But both during the outbreak in two guest houses in lower Saxony as well as the outbreak in Göttingen, the Concerned had not complied with the applicable Assembly rules.

The outbreaks confirm the dangers of scientific knowledge about the largest Infection:

  • many people
  • over a longer period of time
  • in closed rooms
  • close to each other.

If the friends and family of a so-called “super spreader” that meeting was enough for this Person to make all the others sick. Researchers have found that 20 percent of the Infected are for 80 percent of new infections are responsible. Regardless of whether you yourself are very ill or have no symptoms, but large amounts of infectious viruses.

  • Everything about the developments of the Corona-crisis read in the News Ticker

The Good thing about such a Cluster outbreaks that the contacts are relatively easily traceable, and the health authorities ‘ testing and quarantine measures can perform. Christian Drosten is even proposing to send all of your contacts consistently, and without much Pre-testing in quarantine. Because, in the meantime, it is known that the Incubation and infectious period of Sars-CoV-2 is shorter than originally believed, would suffice for a week of Isolation. The infection chain would be interrupted.

Low Sars-CoV-2 Infection, because most people stick to the rules

The vast majority of the population appears to have also easy to the rules that have been taken to curb the epidemic in Germany. More still, you do not take advantage of all of the relaxations immediately.

Virologist Melanie Brinkmann, Helmholtz-centre for infection research in Braunschweig, says: “the behavior of the people has already (before the Lockdown… the Red.) changed.“ Out of fear of infection, many people had been less on-the-go. “And even now not all go back to normal shopping.”

Brinkmann also believes that the mask of duty has had an effect. “After the Opening of the first shops you could see that the R-number is increased slightly, according to the mask of duty she went down again.” From the point of view of the Virologist, it is important that the R-value of 1 and the number of new infections remained low. In the case of the health boards could chains the Infection through contact tracing and quarantine to interrupt. “Then we will be able to a second shaft to turn away.”

  • Find out more:
  • Corona-crisis – quarantine-breakers in Göttingen threatens briefing
  • Distance rules are not complied with, the police resolves wild beach party on the island of Sylt with up to 3500 people
  • Cornelia Betsch in the conversation – “mood flips”: a researcher shows how big the Corona uprising is really

Large-scale events remain a problem

The virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit sees three reasons for the currently low infection happened: the renunciation of large-scale events, the rules of hygiene and respect for the distance rules.

The head of the virus diagnostics at the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for tropical medicine, stressed that the strict restrictions in March had had to be. “It was important to break the first wave, and we managed to do that.” Now we would see how relaxed could be.

The sceptical RKI stresses that the vast majority of the population has no immune protection against Sars-CoV-2. It should be therefore expected that numbers may increase in the case, at any time, and would wave to a second Covid-19 -.

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The summer prevented a second wave?

Against a soon-to-be new big outbreak of the Season, although no one is expecting that the summer heat can be the Coronavirus completely disappear. But: “Many of the viruses which cause acute respiratory diseases, spread in the summer is generally poor,” reads the Website of the RKI. The sun both at rising temperature and UV-radiation, but also the fact that people spend more time Outdoors and less indoors.

Therefore, the Pentecostal, constitute a threat to antics of the many celebrants, the low infection numbers in Germany, hopefully really.

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  • Posted on June 3, 2020